The NFL King of the World - But Where is MNF?

Take a moment to review these numbers - the list of the 20 most watched shows of the fall 2010 TV season. Notice a pattern?

Program (Game)                                                                        Viewers
1. FOX Thanksgiving Day (Saints-Cowboys), 11/25                 31.9 million*
2. CBS Sunday National (mostly Patriots-Bears), 12/12            30.5 million
3. FOX Sunday National (mostly Packers-Eagles), 9/12            28.0 million
4. CBS Sunday National (mostly Colts-Eagles), 11/7                27.8 million
5. CBS Thanksgiving Day (Patriots-Lions), 11/25                    27.8 million*
6. NBC Thursday Kickoff (Vikings-Saints), 9/9                            27.5 million*
7. FOX Sunday National (mostly Cowboys-Colts), 12/5            27.4 million
8. CBS Sunday National (mostly Raiders-Cowboys), 9/19           27.0 million
9. FOX Sunday National (mostly Eagles-Bears), 11/28                26.6 million
10. FOX Sunday National (mostly Cowboys-Giants), 11/14     26.2 million
11. FOX Sunday National (mostly Bears-Packers), 1/2/11           26.1 million
12. FOX Sunday National (mostly Cowboys-Vikings), 10/17        26.0 million
13. NBC Sunday Night Football (Eagles-Cowboys), 12/12            25.7 million*
14. CBS Sunday National (mostly Jets-Steelers), 12/19              25.7 million
15. NBC Sunday Night Football (Vikings-Packers), 10/24           25.7 million*
16. NBC Sunday Night Football (Cowboys-Redskins), 9/12        25.3 million*
17. CBS Sunday National (mostly Vikings-Patriots), 10/31        25.2 million
18. FOX Sunday National (mostly Giants-Packers), 12/26          24.3 million
19t. ABC Dancing with the Stars (season finale pt 2), 11/23        24.2 million
19t. NBC Sunday Night Football (Packers-Patriots), 12/19          24.2 million*

The numbers by network add up to:

FOX: 8/20
CBS: 6/20
NBC: 5/20
ABC: 1/20

But the most important (and obvious) conclusion drawn from the stats is:

NFL Football: 19/20
The World: 1/20

In the Land of TV programming it’s the NFL vs. the World... and the competition is not close.

I put up the total numbers for each major broadcast network (the CW did not have a show qualify) because I wanted to draw attention to ABC whose Dancing With the Stars season finale was the lone non-football program to crack the top twenty, but also stands alone as the only network to not broadcast NFL action. They used to though - on a little show called Monday Night Football.

Quick history lesson. The above numbers, ironically, might never be what they are without ABC, the network that pioneered and perfected the NFL on prime time (Monday and Sunday Nights). Prior to 2006, ABC broadcast Monday Night Football and ESPN, ABC’s sister cable network (both under the Disney umbrella), showcased Sunday Night Football. FOX and CBS split the day games, leaving NBC the lone network out in the cold.

In 2006, ABC, ESPN, and the NFL struck a deal that moved MNF to ESPN, discontinued ABC’s presence on SNF, and opened the door for NBC to stake a claim in what NBC sports chairman Dick Ebersol called, “the best deal you can get in television.” The network signed a deal with that would pay the league $600,000 per game through 2011.

This is the way NFL broadcasts have been structured since 2006, and with both NBC and ESPN re-upping their deals within the past few months, will be the structure for the foreseeable future.

An unbelievable fountain of almost certain ratings wealth flows from football broadcasts. Yet Disney, by choosing to broadcast their only game of the week on a cable channel (ESPN) versus a network (ABC), eliminates themselves from the ratings competition. Everyone with a digital receiver can tap into network broadcasts, but only households with select cable subscriptions can enjoy ESPN.

In 2010, ESPN’s MNF averaged 14 million viewers over 17 telecasts. NBC’s SNF averaged an incredible 21.8 million viewers over 18 broadcasts and went undefeated versus the competition en route to becoming the number one prime-time program of the year. Even though both ESPN and NBC offer the same product, a cable channel cannot compete with the numbers NBC posted in 2010 on a weekly basis. The 2010 BCS National Championship Game (Auburn vs. Oregon) became the most watched cable program of all time, drawing 27.3 million viewers - but one game does not a series make.

More than likely, however, Disney does not care about competing with NBC for prime-time ratings. While they stumble to keep up in numbers, they undoubtedly reap an incredible profit. ESPN charges more per subscription than any other cable channel. Subscribers pay about $5 per month for ESPN and ESPN2 even if they don’t watch it.

So do the math. If 14 million viewers watch a game, each of them paying $5 per month for access to the channel, Disney makes more than enough off of subscriptions to pay any attention to how they fare in the ratings.

Ultimately, its the fan that lost in 2006 when Disney decided to shift its prime-time coverage away from ABC. Not the 14 million people with a cable subscription, but the millions more - like me - forced either to pirate games or go to a bar.

The television industry views NFL games like a pot of gold. As the eye-popping numbers in my first chart suggest, there is no better guarantee for an audience on any other entertainment platform, especially amongst the “critical audience” of 18-49 year-olds. ESPN’s Monday Night Football draws staggering numbers for a cable program, they pull incredible numbers from national advertisers, and subscription fees; therefore, nothing - not even ratings - would force Disney to make the move back to network television.